It hits
$200
$62 cash plus about $138 back from the ticket.
Saturday
Let’s try to double up today
One ticket. $38. The other $62 stays in cash.
The ticket
$38
Two-leg spread parlay. Both -110. Pays about +264.
- Tennessee +5Texas · noon
- Iowa +5.5Michigan · 3:30
Pass the ticket if either number is shorter, or either price is worse than -110.
It misses
$62
One leg dying does not take the $100. The cash never goes in.
Two different jobs
Quarter Kelly
Grow the season. Do not double today.
A side is a bet only if the cover chance beats the no-vig price by 2.5 points. The stake is a quarter of the Kelly number, capped at 3% of the bankroll per ticket and 5% for the whole Saturday.
On $100 that is $3 a ticket and $5 for the day. On the default $10,000 book it is $300 a ticket and $500 for the day. Straights, not a parlay built to hit a number. A miss should leave almost all of the money.
Daily double
Finish at $200 today. Ignore the season cap.
Tennessee and Iowa are on this ticket because both are -110, so $38 is enough to pay $100 if both cover. They are not here because the model cleared a 2.5-point edge. If Today says pass, this ticket is still a shot, not a quarter-Kelly bet.
$38 is 38% of the $100. Quarter Kelly would not allow that. Same two teams, straight, at the Saturday cap would be a few dollars and would not reach $200 even if both won.
Why this stake
Stake = 100 ÷ (decimal odds − 1). Two -110 prices are 1.91 each. Together that is 3.64. 100 ÷ 2.64 = $38. That is the smallest bet that lands on $200 if it wins.
Dubins and Savage: when the price is not in your favor, the best chance of reaching a number today is one bet big enough to reach it. A single -110 cannot do it. $100 at -110 pays about $191. A third leg cuts the chance about in half, from 25% to 12.5% if each side is a coin flip, so it stays at two.
Quarter Kelly is the wrong tool for this job. It grows a season. It does not double a Saturday. This $38 is too big for the season, and it is the right size for today.
Do not also bet Tennessee or Iowa straight. That spends the $62 and does not make the parlay more likely to hit. USC came off. -115 makes the required stake bigger, and a moneyline parlay of the dogs wins less often than the spreads.
Entertainment and education. Not betting advice. You can lose the entire stake. 21+. Legal books